The current discoveries of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA may have distorted crucial oil forecasts under intense U.S. pressure is, if real (and whistleblowers seldom step forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning thermonuclear surge on future global oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pushing the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of discovering brand-new reserves have the prospective to throw federal governments' long-term preparation into mayhem.

Whatever the reality, rising long term international demands appear particular to outstrip production in the next decade, specifically offered the high and rising expenses of establishing new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's overseas Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will require billions in financial investments before their first barrels of oil are produced.

In such a scenario, additives and substitutes such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing role by stretching beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and rising rates drive this technology to the forefront, among the wealthiest prospective production locations has been absolutely overlooked by investors up to now - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the region is poised to become a significant gamer in the production of biofuels if sufficient foreign investment can be acquired. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is manufactured mainly from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mainly distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is a native plant, Camelina sativa.

Of the previous Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the coasts of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have actually seen their economies boom since of record-high energy prices, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as a rising producer of natural gas.

Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and fairly scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian next-door neighbors have largely hindered their ability to cash in on rising international energy demands up to now. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain largely reliant for their electrical requirements on their Soviet-era hydroelectric facilities, but their heightened requirement to produce winter electrical energy has actually led to autumnal and winter water discharges, in turn significantly affecting the agriculture of their western downstream neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

What these three downstream nations do have however is a Soviet-era tradition of agricultural production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was mainly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has actually ended up being a major producer of wheat. Based on my conversations with Central Asian government authorities, provided the thirsty needs of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have great appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lesser level Astana for those sturdy investors ready to bank on the future, specifically as a plant native to the area has actually currently proven itself in trials.

Known in the West as incorrect flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is drawing in increased clinical interest for its oleaginous qualities, with a number of European and American companies already examining how to produce it in industrial quantities for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines undertook a historical test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, ending up being the very first Asian provider to explore flying on fuel originated from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour demonstration flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the culmination of a 12-month evaluation of camelina's operational efficiency capability and possible business viability.

As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to suggest it. It has a high oil material low in hydrogenated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and unsusceptible to spring freezing, needs less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be utilized as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of particular interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's major wheat exporter. Another benefit of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre sown with camelina can produce as much as 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A lot (1000 kg) of camelina will include 350 kg of oil, of which pushing can draw out 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is lost as after processing, the plant's debris can be used for animals silage. Camelina silage has a particularly attractive concentration of omega-3 fats that make it an especially great animals feed prospect that is recently acquiring acknowledgment in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and competes well against weeds when an even crop is developed. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina could be a perfect low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."

Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is native to both Europe and Central Asia and barely a brand-new crop on the scene: historical proof shows it has actually been cultivated in Europe for at least three centuries to produce both vegetable oil and animal fodder.

Field trials of production in Montana, currently the center of U.S. camelina research, revealed a broad variety of outcomes of 330-1,700 pounds of seed per acre, with oil material varying between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have been identified to be in the 6-8 lb per acre variety, as the seeds' little size of 400,000 seeds per lb can produce problems in germination to accomplish an ideal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.

Camelina's potential could enable Uzbekistan to begin breaking out of its most dolorous legacy, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has deformed the country's attempts at agrarian reform given that attaining independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian federal government determined that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing textile market. The process was accelerated under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were likewise ordered by Moscow to plant cotton, Uzbekistan in specific was singled out to produce "white gold."

By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had become self-sufficient in cotton; five years later it had ended up being a major exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world's production, concentrated in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union's output.

Try as it might to diversify, in the absence of alternatives Tashkent remains wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million loads every year, which brings in more than $1 billion while making up roughly 60 percent of the country's hard cash income.

Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet federal government's directives for Central Asian cotton production mostly bankrupted the area's scarcest resource, water. Cotton uses about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet organizers to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the area's two primary rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into inefficient watering canals, resulting in the significant shrinking of the rivers' last destination, the Aral Sea. The Aral, when the world's fourth-largest inland sea with an area of 26,000 square miles, has diminished to one-quarter its initial size in one of the 20th century's worst environmental disasters.

And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University just recently described camelina's company model to Capital Press as: "At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would generate $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would amass $230."

Central Asia has the land, the farms, the watering facilities and a modest wage scale in to America or Europe - all that's missing is the foreign financial investment. U.S. investors have the cash and access to the expertise of America's land grant universities. What is certain is that biofuel's market share will grow over time; less particular is who will profit of establishing it as a viable issue in Central Asia.

If the current past is anything to go by it is unlikely to be American and European investors, focused as they are on Caspian oil and gas.

But while the Japanese flight experiments suggest Asian interest, American investors have the scholastic knowledge, if they are prepared to follow the Silk Road into developing a brand-new market. Certainly anything that decreases water usage and pesticides, diversifies crop production and enhances the lot of their agrarian population will receive most cautious consideration from Central Asia's governments, and farming and grease processing plants are not just much more affordable than pipelines, they can be constructed quicker.

And jatropha curcas's biofuel potential? Another story for another time.